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HUNT THE HOMERUN

HRS-V3 Predictive Model · May 22, 2026 Slate

Slate Size
15 games
Highest HRS
96.80 Shohei Ohtani
Peak HR Prob
28.98% +245

Slate Overview

Environmental vectors, pitcher vulnerability, and match-up value synthesis.

🔥 Top 3 Games with Highest Homer Potential

🧊 Game to Fade

🎯 Top 10 Two-Leg Parlays

Mixing the highest-probability hitters across the slate's most homer-friendly parks. Probabilities assume independence.

# Leg 1 Leg 2 Hit % American Odds $100 → Payout

Top 10 Players by HRS

The slate's mechanical & environmental standouts.

Matchups

Every game on the slate with top-3 HRS per team.

Comprehensive Player List

All analyzed players. Click columns to sort. Filter by team. Use EV Calc to compare model fair odds vs the book. ¼-Kelly sizing is shown in units (1u = 1% of bankroll).

Fetching live odds from The Odds API…
Live odds from Google Sheet (updates every ~20 min) · Market Fair Odds = no-vig price (avg Over from 10 books — DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, ProphetX, Novig, theScore Bet, Caesars, BetRivers, Pinnacle, BetOnline — vig-removed using avg Under from 6 books — Novig, Pinnacle, theScore Bet, BetMGM, BetOnline, ProphetX) · Best Price = highest Over 0.5 across all books · EV to Model = HRS-V3 vs market · EV to Market Fair = Best Price vs no-vig consensus · ¼-Kelly sizing in units (1u = 1% of bankroll).
Player Team HRS Form MV Brl vs Mix ISO vs Mix HR % Fair Odds Z ★ Market Fair Odds Best Price User Odds EV to Model EV to Market Fair ¼-Kelly (u)

1,000-Game Monte Carlo Simulator

Pick a batter-vs-pitcher matchup; we simulate 1,000 games at ~4 PAs each and tally outcomes.

Totals (per 1,000 games)