1. Aaron Judge (NYY)
94.2
vs. PHI (T. Walker)
The premier power threat in baseball faces a hittable pitcher in a favorable park. His metrics against Walker's pitch mix are off the charts, triggering a massive Match-up Value score.
Odds: +326
2. Gunnar Henderson (BAL)
92.8
vs. COL (K. Freeland)
An elite lefty power bat against a struggling LHP in Camden Yards. Henderson's platoon advantage and Freeland's vulnerabilities create a perfect storm, amplified by the 'Vulnerable Pitcher' multiplier.
Odds: +339
vs. ARI (R. Nelson)
A classic case of the 'Match-up Value Re-weighting.' Cruz's elite power against Nelson's fastball-heavy approach makes this a high-leverage opportunity for a home run.
Odds: +352
4. Kyle Stowers (MIA)
89.9
@ MIL (F. Peralta)
Despite a tough pitcher matchup, Stowers' recent form is scorching hot. His specific metrics against Peralta's primary pitches are exceptional, giving him a high Match-up Value score.
Odds: +369
5. Elly De La Cruz (CIN)
88.7
vs. TB (Z. Littell)
A dynamic power hitter in one of the best hitter's parks against the league's most homer-prone pitcher. This is a dream scenario.
Odds: +383
6. Christian Yelich (MIL)
88.1
vs. MIA (C. Quantrill)
Yelich benefits massively from the 'Vulnerable Pitcher' multiplier against Quantrill. His platoon advantage and excellent history against Quantrill's pitch mix result in a stellar Match-up Value score.
Odds: +390
7. Ryan O'Hearn (BAL)
87.5
vs. COL (K. Freeland)
Like his teammate Henderson, O'Hearn is a prime beneficiary of the matchup against the struggling Kyle Freeland in Camden Yards.
Odds: +398
8. Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
86.9
@ BOS (B. Bello)
Ohtani's elite power plays in any park, but especially at Fenway. His combination of recent form and matchup value makes him a constant threat.
Odds: +405
9. Pete Alonso (NYM)
86.2
@ SF (L. Webb)
This ranking is a testament to Alonso's raw power and hot streak. He overcomes a brutal matchup (Webb in Oracle Park) with sheer force.
Odds: +415
10. Kyle Tucker (CHC)
85.5
@ CWS (A. Houser)
Despite a tough pitcher, Tucker's elite platoon splits and performance against Houser's sinkerball-heavy arsenal give him a massive Match-up Value.
Odds: +424
11. Cody Bellinger (NYY)
84.8
vs. PHI (T. Walker)
Bellinger's left-handed swing is tailor-made for Yankee stadium, and he gets a favorable matchup against Taijuan Walker.
Odds: +435
12. Bryce Harper (PHI)
84.1
@ NYY (W. Warren)
A hot hitter with immense power, Harper steps into Yankee Stadium to face a vulnerable pitcher in Will Warren. The short porch is calling his name.
Odds: +443
13. William Contreras (MIL)
83.6
vs. MIA (C. Quantrill)
Contreras benefits from the 'Vulnerable Pitcher' multiplier against Quantrill and possesses some of the best power metrics for a catcher in the league.
Odds: +452
14. Kyle Schwarber (PHI)
83
@ NYY (W. Warren)
The quintessential all-or-nothing slugger gets one of the best home run parks and a hittable pitcher. A classic Schwarber-bomb situation.
Odds: +462
15. Julio Rodriguez (SEA)
82.5
@ LAA (J. Soriano)
J-Rod's combination of power and speed is electric. He faces a league-average pitcher in a neutral park, but his talent gives him an edge every night.
Odds: +468